Food and Beverage Industry Faces Tight Volumes, M&A Reshuffling, and Cybersecurity Threats — What Exhibitors Need for NRA Show, Expo West, and SIAL 2026

The food and beverage industry is grinding through what may be the most strategically complex environment in a generation. Volume growth has flatlined at negative 1 percent to positive 1 percent, meaning companies are fighting over the same consumer dollars rather than growing the pie. Retail growth forecasts have been revised downward to 2 to 4 percent, barely keeping pace with inflation. Barry Callebaut, the world's largest cocoa processor, has announced it will spin off its cocoa sourcing business — a structural move that signals fundamental uncertainty about commodity cost management. And in a jarring reminder that no industry is immune to digital threats, major UK retailers Marks & Spencer and Co-Op were hit by significant cyberattacks that disrupted operations and exposed customer data.

For food and beverage exhibitors, this confluence of volume pressure, corporate restructuring, consumer behavior shifts, and cybersecurity risk creates a show season where the stakes are higher than usual. The companies that navigate 2026 successfully will be those that use trade shows not just to display products but to build the strategic relationships that provide resilience in a tight market. The calendar is loaded: Natural Products Expo West opens March 3 in Anaheim, the NRA Show takes over McCormick Place in Chicago from May 16 to 19, and the fall brings SIAL Paris and Anuga in October.

The Volume Squeeze: When Growth Stops, Strategy Starts

Flat volumes change everything about how food and beverage companies compete. In a growing market, every participant can expand by capturing new demand. In a flat market, every gain comes at a competitor's expense. This zero-sum dynamic intensifies the importance of differentiation, innovation, and trade show presence. When buyers cannot grow by riding a rising tide, they grow by finding better products, better suppliers, and better partners — and they find those at shows.

The volume stagnation is driven by multiple converging factors. Consumer spending on food-at-home has plateaued as grocery price inflation moderates after years of increases. Population growth in developed markets is minimal. And consumers who were forced to trade down during the inflationary years of 2022 to 2024 have discovered that private-label and value-tier products often meet their needs, reducing the volume available for branded products. The result is an industry where the growth is not in volume but in value — through premiumization, functional ingredients, and products that command higher price points because they deliver measurable differentiation.

Where the Growth Actually Is

• Clean label and transparency: Consumers are demanding shorter ingredient lists, recognizable ingredients, and full supply chain transparency. Products that can demonstrate clean sourcing and simple formulations are gaining share even in a flat volume environment.
• Functional foods and beverages: Products with demonstrable health benefits — gut health, cognitive function, energy, sleep support — command premium pricing and are among the few categories showing real volume growth.
• Sustainability-certified products: Retailers are increasingly requiring sustainability certifications as a condition of shelf placement. Products with credible environmental credentials are winning distribution over those without.
• Plant-based 2.0: The first wave of plant-based products struggled with taste and texture complaints. The second generation, with dramatically improved formulations, is finding stronger consumer acceptance, particularly in dairy alternatives and snacking.

Barry Callebaut's Cocoa Spinoff: A Structural Shift

Barry Callebaut's decision to spin off its cocoa sourcing and processing business is one of the most significant structural moves in the food ingredients sector in years. The world's largest chocolate and cocoa company is effectively saying that the risk profile of commodity cocoa sourcing has become incompatible with the margin expectations of its value-added chocolate and compound coatings business. Cocoa prices have been extraordinarily volatile, driven by climate-related production disruptions in West Africa, and Barry Callebaut has concluded that managing that volatility is better handled as a separate entity.

For food and beverage exhibitors, the Barry Callebaut spinoff signals a broader trend: ingredient companies are restructuring to separate commodity risk from value-added innovation. This creates opportunities for ingredient suppliers who can offer stability, traceability, and consistent quality in an increasingly volatile commodity environment. At trade shows, the conversation is shifting from price per unit to supply security, transparency, and the ability to guarantee consistent ingredient availability.

Retail Growth Forecast Lowered: The 2–4% Reality

The downward revision of retail growth forecasts to 2 to 4 percent has significant implications for how food and beverage companies allocate their trade show budgets and strategies. At 2 to 4 percent growth, retailers are intensely focused on category management efficiency — maximizing the return from every linear foot of shelf space and every menu slot. This means they are looking for products that demonstrate strong consumer pull, high velocity, and incremental category growth rather than simple substitution.

For exhibitors, this shifts the trade show conversation from "here is our new product" to "here is the data showing our product grows the category." Buyers at the NRA Show and SIAL are increasingly data-driven in their purchasing decisions, and exhibitors who bring consumer research, velocity data from test markets, and category growth analysis will have dramatically more productive meetings than those who rely on taste tests alone.

Cybersecurity Hits the Food Chain

The cyberattacks on Marks & Spencer and Co-Op in the UK sent a chill through the food retail sector. M&S, one of Britain's most iconic retailers, suffered a breach that disrupted online ordering and exposed customer information. Co-Op experienced a similar incident that affected its supply chain operations. These attacks demonstrated that food retailers — which have historically underinvested in cybersecurity compared to financial services and technology companies — are now high-value targets for cybercriminals.

For food and beverage exhibitors, the cybersecurity threat creates both risk and opportunity. Companies whose products require digital integration — connected packaging, IoT-enabled supply chain monitoring, digital loyalty programs — need to demonstrate that their technology meets the security standards retailers are now demanding. And food technology companies offering cybersecurity solutions for the food supply chain have a newly receptive audience at every F&B trade show in 2026.

"The M&S and Co-Op breaches were a wake-up call for the entire food retail industry. Every major retailer is now reviewing its supply chain partners' cybersecurity posture, and that review will extend to exhibitors' digital products at every trade show this year." — UK food industry cybersecurity advisor, February 2026

Trade Show Strategy: Where to Be in 2026

Natural Products Expo West — Anaheim, March 3–7

Expo West is the natural and organic industry's annual gathering, attracting over 65,000 attendees and 3,000+ exhibitors. In a flat-volume environment, Expo West becomes even more critical because it is where the growth categories — organic, clean label, functional, plant-based — are concentrated. Buyers come to Expo West specifically looking for innovations that will drive incremental growth in their natural and specialty sets. For exhibitors in these categories, Expo West is the single most productive selling event of the year.

NRA Show — Chicago, May 16–19

The National Restaurant Association Show is the foodservice industry's flagship event, drawing approximately 55,000 attendees focused on restaurant, hospitality, and institutional foodservice. With consumers continuing to shift spending toward food-away-from-home experiences, the NRA Show represents the largest concentration of foodservice buyers on the 2026 calendar. Menu innovation, labor-saving solutions, and back-of-house efficiency products are particularly resonant themes in a tight-margin foodservice environment.

SIAL Paris — October 2026

SIAL Paris is the world's largest food innovation exhibition, attracting over 7,000 exhibitors from 120+ countries. For food and beverage companies with international ambitions, SIAL is where global distribution partnerships are formed. The 2026 edition will be particularly important as European retailers implement new sustainability disclosure requirements and seek suppliers who can meet those standards. Exhibitors with credible sustainability stories and clean-label formulations will find especially engaged European buyers.

Anuga — Cologne, October 2026

Anuga, alternating with SIAL as the world's leading food fair, returns in 2025 and remains on buyers' radar for its comprehensive coverage of food technology, fine food, and frozen food categories. For exhibitors who missed or chose not to attend SIAL, Anuga offers comparable access to European and global buyers with a slightly different exhibitor and attendee composition.

Exhibitor Strategies for Food and Beverage Shows in 2026

1. Lead with data, not just taste. In a 2 to 4 percent growth environment, retail and foodservice buyers are making data-driven decisions. Bring consumer research, category analysis, velocity data from test markets, and competitive positioning studies to your booth. A compelling taste is table stakes — compelling data is what gets you on the shelf or the menu.
2. Tell your sustainability story with specifics. Vague sustainability claims no longer resonate with sophisticated buyers. Bring specific metrics: carbon footprint per unit, water usage data, packaging recyclability rates, fair trade certifications, supply chain traceability documentation. European buyers at SIAL and Anuga are particularly rigorous in their sustainability evaluation, but North American buyers are catching up rapidly.
3. Address the clean label demand directly. If your product has a clean ingredient deck, make that the centerpiece of your booth. If it does not, be prepared to explain your reformulation roadmap. Buyers are increasingly unwilling to add products with complex ingredient lists, and the clean label conversation will be front and center at every F&B show in 2026.
4. Demonstrate digital security readiness. If your product involves any digital component — connected packaging, app-based consumer engagement, digital supply chain integration — be prepared to discuss your cybersecurity posture. The M&S and Co-Op breaches have made every retailer acutely aware of supply chain cyber risk, and that awareness will extend to vendor evaluation at trade shows.
5. Capture every buyer interaction without friction. Food and beverage trade shows involve hundreds of brief conversations per day, many of which happen while tasting products or reviewing packaging. Traditional business card exchange is awkward with full hands and crowded aisles. Use Scannly to capture contact information via a quick QR code scan, ensuring no buyer interaction is lost and your follow-up pipeline is complete within hours of each show day ending.

The M&A Wave: What Restructuring Means for Exhibitors

Barry Callebaut is not the only company restructuring. Across the food and beverage sector, companies are divesting non-core brands, acquiring in high-growth categories, and consolidating supply chains to improve efficiency. For exhibitors, this M&A activity creates both opportunity and uncertainty. Acquisitions mean new decision-makers, new procurement processes, and new vendor evaluation criteria. Divestitures mean former customers may be under new ownership with different strategic priorities.

Trade shows are the most efficient way to navigate this reshuffling. When corporate structures change, the relationships built on show floors often persist even as organizational charts shift. Exhibitors who invest in deep, personal connections with buyers — rather than purely transactional relationships — are better insulated against the disruption that M&A activity creates.

The food and beverage industry enters its 2026 trade show season under conditions that demand strategic sophistication from exhibitors. Flat volumes, restructuring, shifting consumer demands, and emerging cybersecurity threats create an environment where the old playbook of "sample the product and take orders" is no longer sufficient. The exhibitors who thrive will be those who bring data, demonstrate differentiation, address sustainability and security concerns, and systematically capture every relationship that forms on the show floor. Expo West, the NRA Show, SIAL, and Anuga are where those relationships begin.